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Day 384 of the Invasion of Ukraine: The Kremlin does not expect the War to Last more than 3 Years

, Станимир Петков (Клуб на инвалидите - Сливен)

Излъчване: Tuida News | World | преди 2 седмици | 84


Day 384 of the invasion of Ukraine. Summary of key events in the last 24 hours:

The battle for Bakhmut: Russia continues with new attacks in the town of Avdeevka

ISW: The Kremlin does not expect the war to last more than three years

There is a proposal in the Russian parliament to raise the minimum age for military service

Russia announced an extension of the grain corridor by 60 days, Ukraine by 120

The battle for Bakhmut: Russia continues with new attacks in the town of Avdeevka

As the battle for Bakhmut rages, Russia has stepped up its attack on Avdeyevka in eastern Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian authorities, the local school was destroyed during a Russian attack on the town yesterday. A woman is reported dead. In Bakhmut - both sides continue to make sacrifices. The Ukrainian president announced that Russia had lost over 1,100 military personnel in a week. Moscow, on the other hand, reports over 200 Ukrainian soldiers killed in 24 hours. There is no independent confirmation of the claims.

ISW: The Kremlin does not expect the war to last more than three years

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ruled out full mobilization. A bill to raise the conscription age has been submitted to the Duma, according to which the maximum age is increased from 27 to 30 years, and the minimum age - from 18 to 21 years. It will increase by one year from 2024 to 2026.

"The immediate increase in the maximum age in the bill is likely intended to widen the conscription age range to meet some of the immediate needs of the Russian military in Ukraine, and then subsequently reduce the overall conscription requirements for Russian society in the coming years," said a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts say the Kremlin may be trying to shield a new generation of Russians from the demographic and social impacts of the war of attrition in Ukraine by spreading those impacts across a cross-generational group of Russians.

The timetable for lowering the conscription age may also indicate that the Kremlin does not expect the war in Ukraine to last more than the next three years.

Putin and his entourage fear the socio-economic consequences. The pressure on the military-political leadership of the country is also growing due to the heavy losses of the Armed Forces of Russian in the battles for the Donbas.

The number of dead Russian soldiers in Ukraine is about 160,540. Over the past 24 hours, another 740 soldiers have been killed, announced the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Three people died and 14 were wounded in the Donetsk region from enemy shelling, announced the chairman of the military administration in the region, Pavel Kirilenko. A total of 1,410 Ukrainians were killed in the area since the start of the war, and 3,183 wounded.

There is a proposal in the Russian parliament to raise the minimum age for military service

A legislative initiative to raise the minimum age for compulsory military service in Russia was submitted to the Russian parliament, the Interfax news agency reported, quoted by DPA and BTA.

The proposal provides for a gradual increase in the minimum age for military conscription from 18 to 21 years by 2026. It also provides for an immediate increase in the maximum age from 27 to 30 years.

The bill was introduced by Andrey Kartapolov, a former general who chairs the defense committee in the State Duma, according to Reuters.

From next year, recruits will be called up at the age of 19, and from 2025 - at the age of 20. If someone wants to voluntarily join the army at the age of 18, he will be able to do so, Interfax reported.

The cap, on the other hand, will be raised directly to 30 years, with no intermediate stages.

In December last year, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu already announced that changes in the age of compulsory military service were being prepared. Observers attributed this to the planned increase in Russian armed forces from the current 1.15 million to 1.5 million soldiers. Independent media have pointed out that with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the new regulations could lead to around 300,000 additional conscripts in the army due to differences in population numbers among different birth years. Officially, Russia does not send conscripts to war, but they perform internal security tasks, DPA said. However, Reuters recalls that in September Moscow annexed four regions in Ukraine, thus de facto turning them into its territory.

Russia announced an extension of the grain corridor by 60 days, Ukraine by 120

The Black Sea grain deal, which facilitates the export of Ukrainian agricultural products, has been extended by 60 days, Russia's TASS news agency reported, as quoted by Reuters on Tuesday.

"Indeed, the deal has been extended - it has been agreed for 60 days," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told the media after consultations between Moscow and the UN were held in Geneva on Monday.

Russia "does not object to the next extension of the Black Sea Initiative after the second deadline expires on March 18, but only for 60 days," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei

Vershinin said in a statement released by the Russian mission in Geneva after the talks.

Ukraine will stick to the terms of a previously signed agreement on a 120-day extension of the Black Sea grain export initiative, a senior Ukrainian government official said on Tuesday.

"We will strictly abide by the agreement," the official, who declined to be named, told Reuters.

Turkey, which is an intermediary between Kyiv and Moscow on the grain corridor, said that talks on the parameters of the continuation of the deal have not yet ended.

The deal, originally brokered by the UN and Turkey last July, was extended once in November for 120 days and will automatically renew on March 18 if neither side objects.

About 24 million tons of Ukrainian produce have been transported so far under the Black Sea Initiative. It envisages a ten-mile corridor through the Black Sea for the movement of ships from three Ukrainian ports - Odesa, Yuzhne and Chornomorsk. The cargoes are inspected at a joint coordination center in Turkey, which is the guarantor of the UN-initiated deal.

"If the deal is extended for 60 days, it will continue to operate after March 18, and after 60 days one of the parties can raise the issue of its termination," reports "Reuters".


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