Day 438 of the invasion of Ukraine. Summary of key events in the last 24 hours:

The Institute for the Study of War: Prigozhin and Kadyrov announced their intention to have Chechen fighters replace "Wagner" in the battle for Bakhmut

Explosions in Crimea after suspected Ukrainian drone attacks

Ukraine fears that the counter-offensive will not meet the hopes of the West

Russia blamed Ukraine for the attack on Zakhar Prilepin

The Institute for the Study of War: Prigozhin and Kadyrov announced their intention to have Chechen fighters replace "Wagner" in the battle for Bakhmut

The owner of the Russian private military company "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin and the leader of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov announced their intention to have Chechen fighters replace the militia of a businessman considered close to President Vladimir Putin in the battle for Bakhmut, the Institute for the Study of War wrote today.

Yesterday, Prigozhin published his letter to the Minister of Defense of Russia, Sergei Shoigu, requesting that the "Wagner" positions in the area of the eastern Ukrainian city be occupied by the Chechen "Akhmat" battalion.

According to the text, this will happen exactly at midnight on May 10, when, according to the Russian businessman, his militia will have completely exhausted its fighting potential. Prigozhin expresses confidence that the Akhmat Battalion can capture the remaining 2.5 square kilometers of Bakhmut that remain under Ukrainian control, the US think tank noted in its daily briefing on the progress of the war.

Kadyrov responded to Prigozhin by saying that he had sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin expressing his readiness to take Bakhmut and claiming that Chechen military units were already working with the Russian Ministry of Defense on a strategy to take the Wagner positions in this section of the front.

In its briefing yesterday, the Institute for the Study of War suggested that the Bakhmut offensive appears to be no longer a priority for Russia at the expense of defense preparations against an expected Ukrainian counter-offensive. That puts the Wagner group and its owner in a potentially difficult position, according to the Washington-based think tank.

Explosions in Crimea after suspected Ukrainian drone attacks

A number of explosions went off in several locations in the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula early this morning, Russian and Ukrainian media reported. According to Russian social networks, air defense systems have activated and are repelling attacks.

Ukraine has sent a series of drones into the Crimean peninsula, with Russian air defenses shooting down at least one over the port of Sevastopol. This was reported by a Telegram channel associated with Russian law enforcement agencies. According to preliminary information, no one was injured.

According to Ukrainian monitoring channels on Telegram, explosions occurred in Sevastopol and Saky, where Russia has an air base, as well as several other locations on the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014.

An air alert was declared over most of eastern Ukraine last night. The warning was aimed at regions east of Vinnytsia to Kherson Oblast and Crimea.

Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency has expressed concern over the tense situation surrounding Ukraine's nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, which is located near the front line of the war. The situation is becoming increasingly unpredictable and potentially dangerous at the Russian-occupied nuclear power plant, the head of the agency, Rafael Grossi, said last night.

The pro-Moscow administration in Zaporizhzhia region announced an evacuation on Friday, including in the town of Energodar, where most of the nuclear plant's employees live. Grossi says employees will remain on site, but the situation is becoming "increasingly tense, stressful and challenging" for them and their families. According to the UN nuclear watchdog, constant stress can lead to errors and accidents at the nuclear power plant. Grossi again called for an agreement between Ukraine and Russia to prevent the largest nuclear power plant in Europe from a disaster.

At the same time, "Washington Post" quotes the Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov, according to whom the expectations of the counteroffensive are overestimated by the world and such expectations can lead to "emotional disappointment".

The publication also published what was stated by President Volodymyr Zelensky, who indicated that Ukraine would be ready to launch an offensive as soon as it received the weapons agreed with its partners.

An air alert was also declared this morning in most of the country, and authorities reported that a reconnaissance drone had been intercepted in Kyiv’s airspace and had been destroyed.

Ukraine fears that the counter-offensive will not meet the hopes of the West

The military leadership of Ukraine is trying to convince the West to limit its expectations of the planned counter-offensive, as it is not certain that it will be able to turn the tide of the conflict, writes the American "Washington Post", quoted by BTA, referring to interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.

"Expectations for our counteroffensive have been overestimated by the world. Most people expect something big," Reznikov said. According to him, such expectations can lead to "emotional disappointment".

Representatives of the authorities in Kyiv fear that, in case of failure, Ukraine may lose supplies of military aid, and the West may try to force the country to sit down at the negotiating table with Russia, the Washington Post writes. The newspaper points out that, according to a number of experts, it would be difficult or even impossible to push Russia back to the positions it held before the start of the conflict in February last year.

"I think the more victories we have on the battlefield, the more people will believe in us, which means we will get more help," Zelensky said. He indicated that Ukraine will be ready to launch an offensive "as soon as it receives the weapons that have been agreed with the partners." The deadline can still be moved depending on weather conditions, Zelensky specified.

According to Reznikov, the "first Ukrainian assault group" is more than 90% ready for a counteroffensive, but some servicemen have not yet completed their training abroad. The main need of the Ukrainian armed forces at the moment is air defense systems, he stressed.

Zelensky added that Kyiv would not wait for the delivery of fighter jets to launch a counteroffensive. "It would be a lot easier" if Ukraine had the F-16. Now we lose in the sky," he said.

Earlier, the National Security Council strategic communications coordinator at the White House, John Kirby, said that the US is not yet considering the possibility of supplying Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets. US President Joe Biden also said the delivery of US fighter jets "is not a priority right now". At the same time, on March 4, the NBC television channel reported the arrival of two Ukrainian pilots in the United States for possible training on Western military aircraft, including F-16 fighters.

Russia blamed Ukraine for the attack on Zakhar Prilepin

Russia blamed Ukraine for the attack on the Russian writer Zakhar Prilepin. Yesterday his car was blown up in the Nizhny Novgorod region.

The writer was injured and his driver was killed.

Hours after the attack, a man of Ukrainian origin was detained. According to investigators in Russia, he admitted to placing the bomb under Prilepin's car.

The writer is a supporter of the Russian president and a supporter of the war in Ukraine. He is also a member of a nationalist group.

The attack is the latest in a series of attacks and sabotage in Russia that Moscow blames on Kyiv.